Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

There is intraday commentary on the derivatives markets with an emphasis on the Anglo-American dominance of the precious metals derivatives markets.

Gold caught a little bounce this afternoon and even closed rising despite a stronger dollar and a weak stock performance. But given the technical damage in the chart it was not significant.

It remains oversold and in a trading range as indicated

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Down to the Bottom of the River

Not a strong close for the month to say the least.

Traders were not interested in hold long positions over the weekend.

See you on Monday.

The Anglo-American Precious Metals Derivatives Duopoly: Quarterly OCC Report

The US Office of the Currency Comptroller (OCC) issues a Quarterly Report on the Derivatives exposure of US Banks and Trust. The report, including historical archives, can be found here.

The report includes "all insured U.S. commercial banks and trust companies as well as other published financial data." So obviously it is not comprehensive of private funds, and banks without a US subsidiary

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

The markets are waiting for some catalyst, some reason for their next move.

Until then they just churn back and forth.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Stocks are still weak, and in a trading range, looking for some impetus to their next big move, up or down.

Die Mackie Messers Der Wall Street - The Mack the Knives of Wall Street

Ubi sunt qui ante nos fuerunt?
I was watching old movies and documentaries last night as a follow up to my recent readings. They also have some contemporary and artistic resonance to today.

Here is a clip that I found interesting. You may be familiar with the music if not the lyrics.

Drei Groschen Oper - Die Moritat von Mackie Messer



The above is a scene from the G. W. Pabst movie version

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

The metals reversed lower today as fresh selling hit the markets along with selling in the equities.

Jitters about the German vote and European debt situation were blamed.

See today's stock charts posting for commentary.

My view of the metals action is skeptical if not downright cynical.  I assumed we would have a down day in the metals to knock out any brave souls whose call options went

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - "Sell Rosh Hashanah and Buy Yom Kippur"

The old Wall Street adage says:
"Sell on Rosh Hashanah and Buy on Yom Kippur."
Rosh Hoshanah begins at sundown on Wednesday, 28 September this year, and Yom Kippur at sundown on Friday, 8 October.

And the selling did come in today as stocks turned lower after a stronger open.

We are into the end of the month tape-painting period, and barring any fresh negative developments from Europe we *

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Happy Option Expiration Day - Gold Carry Trade

Today was Option Expiration Day for the metals on Comex. Presumably the call holders have been beaten sufficiently, and now it is the turn of those holding puts.

This is a nice bounce, but as a caution the downtrends in the short term have not yet been broken.

In an earlier piece today about the gold market we discussed leasing of gold by central banks into the markets which certainly does

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

We get the third estimate of US Second Quarter GDP on Thursday but otherwise the domestic news is light, and US markets are being dominated by sovereign debt concerns in Europe.

Gold Seasonality and a Convergence of Events at the End of November 2011

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.

Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded.

The US Fed was very active in

Thank You for the Pleasant Surprise

My friend Dominique on the Côte d'Azur‎ sent this to me, and it took me a little while to figure out why. So many things are going on.

I am stunned, surprised by joy.   Thank you for your patronage.

Et merci à tous mes amis du café.


This is from The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz. I assume he was too much the gentleman to allow his own blog to be included in the voting. It would certainly

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Night Bombing Raid - Silver +4.50 from Low - LBMA

Gold December futures fell to 1535 and Silver to 26.15 in the overnight session as a determined night bombing raid took them down in the least liquid period of the 24 hour trading day, with the low being reached around 2 AM New York time.

Silver Dec futures are now at 30.78 in New York, virtually unchanged from their open at 30.85, or up over $4.50 from the low.

Gold is at 1623 now, or up

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Big Reversal In US Equities - Dead Cat Bounce?

US stocks bounced hard today from a deeply oversold short term position.

However, the proximity to support in a somewhat cynical trading range is notable.

If it breaks out of that channel, either direction for more than a day, stay out of the way unless you are riding the trend.

The Golden Bowl - Long Term Update - Intermediate Correction - Target 2360 'To the Rim'

A friend from Strasbourg had sent me a long term gold chart, with the past prices updated for inflation, which I had termed, The Golden Bowl.

He has been kind enough to send the updated prices to it. The past prices are adjusted for inflation, but the current prices are nominal, and of course everything is priced in US dollars.

I should note that all the annotations are mine, so if it is

The Garden of Beasts: Die Nacht der Langen Messer - The Night of the Long Knives

I have finished reading The Garden of Beasts by Erik Larson, and I now understand why it is such a popular book of non-fiction.

It is remarkably well-researched, with an impressive set of footnotes based on original sources from diverse places. They are worth reading in themselves as they contain little delights and vignettes. The book provides deep insight into some of the minds of

Year-To-Date Performance of Various Financial Assets

Check out the Treasuries in the second chart, particularly the 30 Year Bond.

If the Fed had not been targeting assets to create some of these price moves it would be the best case for deflation which I have seen thus far.

I think this might be a case in which Fed does something with the right hand, which the audience is watching, while it does something very different with its left hand,

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Liquidation Panic - Martian Gold - Comex Hikes Margins

"Yesterday, the textbook was thrown out the window. All asset classes saw sudden and sharp moves far in excess of normal volatility patterns. To an old timer, that points to one conclusion. Liquidation. Wide-spread liquidation across asset classes. Currencies, bonds, commodities and stocks all moved swiftly and sharply in a direction that screamed - Seek safety! Raise cash! Get liquid...

All

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - US Equities Pause In Hopes of Intervention

US equities paused their selling and found some support today.

Next week is another story. The markets are looking for some official response on the European debt situation.

There is also concern about political discontinuity in Washington, and it appears to be well-founded.

Net Asset Value of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Although it is slightly less visible to those who only look at US equity markets, there is a liquidation sell off in the world markets especially Europe. This is helping to steepen the correction in the metals markets.

Notice from this chart that the gold/silver ratio is back over 50 again. And so I have become interested in silver again today for my short term interests.

It is important to

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - La Douleur du Monde - Sexy Sadie Masters

Big Sell Off today in US markets as cash was being raised over renewed fears of a Euro-meltdown and a US recession.

The long gold - short stocks trade provided balance into this correction, but as of today the stock shorts are gone.

Let's see if the short term trends have bottomed. Unless this is the big one Elizabeth, I think they just might be.

If you are not in it, wait for it. But it

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Rough Seas and Investor Vertigo

Big drop in the US stock market on European jitters and recession fears.

Markets are starting to look for support here, with biggest tell in the NDX. Let see how that develops.

Potential 'island top' in the Vix.

Then again, things could continue to deteriorate. But the probability is that unless we are going to hell in a handbasket, the wiseguys are already starting to buy back in.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Flight to Nowhere - Bravo Masters, Shall We Dance

The Fed did what was expected, announcing Operation Twist which will buy Treasuries in the 6 to 30 year range to pull down rates. They will also continue to roll over their balance sheet assets.

The unexpected perhaps was the strong language in describing the economy in terms of 'significant downside risk.' This language, coupled with the bank downgrades in Italy and the US, had trading

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Significant Downside Risk and Bank Downgrades

Stocks sold off sharply and went out on their lows as the Fed did exactly was was expected, no more no less, but went on to cite 'significant downside risks.'

Given the downgrades of US and Italian banks this was too much for trader's to take, and there was a flight into the dollar and Treasuries, the latter at least in part as a reaction to Operation Twist which will be buying in the 6 to

Federal Reserve Board: Operation Twist, "Significant Downside Risk"' to the Economy

Nothing unexpected in today's Fed release. It was Operation Twist, with about $400 billion in Treasuries being rolled into the longer end of the curve from 6 to 30 years.

The Fed will be rolling over its Agency debt as it matured.

There was no decrease in the payment on Reserves as some had expected.

There is no additional expansion of the Balance Sheet which would be called QE3.

The only

Stiglitz: the Government and Housing Policy, and the Tablet of History

Every country has an industrial policy of some sort, ranging from active mercantilism to laissez-faire. Even no policy is a policy. But through its tax code, regulations, investments, and monetary activity each country shapes to a great degree the posture of its economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

For at least the last thirty years the industrial policy of the US has been to stimulate

Elizabeth Warren On the US Deficit Problem and Fair Taxation

Elizabeth Warren on the election circuit in Massachusetts.

She left out any discussion of the financial bailouts, probably in the interest of simplicity and brevity. But she ought not to do so.



Thanks to DailyKos

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bear Trap Developing in Gold?

There are high expectations ahead of the Fed's September announcement tomorrow afternoon.

Traders are betting the Fed will cap rates in Operation Twist. There are also even odds that the Fed will cut the rate it pays on bank reserves which it holds. The thinking is that it will give banks more incentive to lend. The downside is the view that if it becomes too close to zero, people will stop

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Reversal Ahead of the Fed

Stocks were rallying today, when fresh jitters about a Greek default caused the afternoon trade to turn south, finishing almost even to slightly in the red.

I suspect quite a bit of that selling was due to traders squaring up their positions ahead of the big Fed announcement tomorrow.

Expectations of some action from the Fed are high. Reassuring words alone will not sustain the equity

US Housing Starts Stuck at Lowest Levels Since 1945

Charts courtesy of John Williams at Shadowstats.

The first chart shows US Housing Starts since the year 2000.

The second chart shows US Housing Starts since 1945.

Net Asset Value of Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

The premiums are now even narrower, with the usual exception of PSLV of course.

Ayn Rand: A Fitting Muse for the Tyranny of the Self

"At this point in my life, I did not think it was possible to significantly lower my estimate of Ayn Rand, or to regard her as even more of a psychological and moral mess than I had already taken her to be.

I stand corrected."
Excerpted by my friend JerryB:

Romancing the Stone-Cold Killer: Ayn Rand and William Hickman
by Michael Prescott

In her journal circa 1928 Rand quoted the statement,

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Bear raid today in the metals, as money was chasing stocks after the open, and the metals tanked when New York woke up into the 3 PM London afternoon fix.

FOMC meets this week and announces their decision on Wednesday.  This meeting was expanded from one to two days by Mr. Bernanke last month, and is widely expected to facilitate in depth discussions of non-traditional Fed market activities.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Another day in which stocks came in weak, and ended the day strong after the European markets closed.

VIX remains elevated but the volumes are thin.

Later: Italy credit rating cut to A from A+ by S&P; outlook negative

Futures drop ten points on the news.

Net Asset Values of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

It has been a while since we've seen the net to premiums of CEF, GTU, and PHYS this closely bunched.

As always PSLV is off by itself in the stratosphere. But if the premium is generally high then it really does not matter overmuch, does it?

A Closer Look at the Gold Continuation Triangle, and the Coming Breakout to 2100

The Gold Daily and Silver Weekly charts are growing rather large since the key breakouts that mark this leg of their bull markets. It does give the big picture, but it could make things a little more difficult to see for the short term movements. Here is a closer look at daily gold.

Although there are a number of possibilities, some of which have been promoted by other 'name' chartists which

The Next Phase in the Currency Wars Among the US, China, Japan and Europe

"Double, double, toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.
Cool it with a baboon's blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.

O well done! I commend your pains;
And every one shall share in the gains;
And now about the cauldron sing,
Live elves and fairies in a ring,
Enchanting all that you put in.

By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes."

Wm. Shakespeare, Macbeth,

Weekend Reading - You Are Called to a Great Undertaking

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him. We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now. We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

God's presence is not discerned at the time when it is upon

Bernanke and the Banks Say 'Trust Me' and for Many Gold Is the Answer

Gold = 1 / T,
where T stands for the Trust that people have in the fiat Monetary System and the financial complex running it. Jim Grant points the finger at the central bankers, but they are merely creatures, albeit powerful actors, in a system of privilege and legalized looting.

In other words, the price of gold will run higher in response to the opacity, crony capitalism, insider dealing,

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Antics Abounding

Comex option expiration next week, and the European and US central banks are widely expected to engage in more printing to save the most reckless banks at the expense of the public.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Chart

Another quad option expiration come and gone.

The markets are looking to the ECB and FOMC next week.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quad Witching Tomorrow, Comex Next Week

"The thing is right now we are nowhere near bubble territory. If gold were $10,000 we’d be having a conversation about whether that was a bubble, but at the $1,800, $1,900 level that’s absolutely not the case. If you are going to ride this long-term trend at the very high levels that we are talking about, you are just going to have to bear this volatility...."

Jim Rickards
This certainly

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Quad Witching Tomorrow - Rogue Trader My Ass

As a reminder, tomorrow is a 'quad witching' day for equities in the US.

Next week there is a two day FOMC meeting, and the Comex will have an option expiration.

Volumes were light on the NYSE today with under a billion shares traded.

I found this story on the $2 Billion trading loss at UBS to be interesting. I was going to write something in this vein, but he says it quite well. Rogue

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - La Douleur du Monde - Risk Off on Hope of Sorts

Today was a 'risk off' day, and the safe havens were scorned in favor of riskier red meat, namely stocks.

The meme on the desks was that the markets had priced in a disorderly Greek default, but now expectations are set for an orderly Greek default, hence the rally. The Street is still expecting a default, but one with a tighter blast perimiter, namely confined to continental Europe, with all

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

The buzzword for today is orderly, as in an orderly default for Greece, which is what the Street put forward as a means to squeeze the short interest and rally stocks today, although they faded a little bit into the close.

The US economy is slumping and the political leadership is dysfunctionally obsessed with campaign contributions, so optimism appears to be a bit misplaced.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Continuing intervention ahead of the FOMC and ECB actions.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Markets are in a range, waiting to see what happens in Europe, and with the FOMC next week.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Perception Is Everything When You Rule the World

"There are no markets, just interventions."

Chris Powell, GATA
The pampered princes on Bloomberg today suggested there was selling of gold to 'raise capital' today, and that selling was being done by 'central banks.' Perhaps they need to meet some margin calls. lol.

You just can't make this stuff up.

Another QE is coming. The banks are dying on the vine and need another stealth bailout to

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wall Street Issues Its Latest Ultimatum to Europe

“I’m very close to thinking the United States shouldn’t be in Basel any more. I would not have agreed to rules that are blatantly anti-American. Our regulators should go there and say: ‘If it’s not in the interests of the United States, we’re not doing it'...

I think any American president, secretary of Treasury, regulator or other leader would want strong, healthy global financial firms and

Weekend Reading: Psychopaths Among Us, the Madness Rises Again, and the Necessity of Law

"A lot of white-collar criminals are psychopaths," says Bob Hare. "But they flourish because the characteristics that define the disorder are actually valued. When they get caught, what happens? A slap on the wrist, a six-month ban from trading, and don't give us the $100 million back. I've always looked at white-collar crime as being as bad or worse than some of the physically violent crimes

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Currency Wars, Margin Hikes, Failed Raids, Silver $1,200

The con...

Cleared OTC London Gold hike from $6751 to $9450 (40%.)

The Exchange (CME) acts as the clearer for these OTC products, eliminating counterparty risk (cash deals done in OTC space, is posted / converted into futures via the Clearport platform). The Exchange however does not post Open interest in these OTC cleared forwards.  

DATE : Thursday, September 8, 2011

NOTICE # : 11-317

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Psychopathia Financialis

“A psychopath can tell what you’re thinking but what they don’t do is feel what you feel. These are people without a conscience.”

Bob Hare

It was 'fear on' as concerns about a Greece default had stocks selling off led lower by the financials. The VIX remained elevated. We will have to see if anything comes out of the G7 or the ECB before Monday.

The Ten Year Treasury hit a record low of 1.91

Net Asset Value of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

I will be covering the obvious bear raids in my gold and silver chart commentary.

One of the pampered princes on financial television, who often carries the daily talking points for the pigmen, has said about fifty times today that:
perception management

'look at the price of gold, why isn't it going up if there is a European banking crisis? Is it really a safe haven like Treasuries and

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - This Trade Is Bananas

Crazy days in the metal trade as the recent bear raid, using the infamous Dr. Evil strategy, did not stick.

The people and traders of India and China may have liked the buying opportunity, but I suspect it just gave Blythe and her merry pranksters a headache.

Most commentary on the economy carried on the television financial networks is astonishing. How many moons do these people have on

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

The market paused to listen to an address from Bernanke, and for the Jobs Talk by Obamination this evening.

I do not hope for anything innovative. Perhaps a refi program and some payroll tax break.

A payroll tax suspension is tantamount to taking the money from Social Security, which is why the Republicans might favor it.

America is being held hostage by the monied interests.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Predictable Moves in the Bretton Woods Endgame

Obama speaks tomorrow, and the Swiss are joining the fiat flight to the bottom of the barrel, as each nation tries to beggar their neighbor and join the mercantilist daisy chain.

So the financiers had to hit gold to take it out of the spotlight. We may see more bear raids in the paper trade, supported by physical buying as Asia and the developing world recapitalizes their banks with precious

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pity the Plight of the Corporate Welfare Queens

Big rally today and a relaxation of the fear trade.

Republican candidates debate tonight.

Obama, more right of center than the raving socialist than the spinsters paint him, should join them as a placeholder for the Nelson Rockefeller wing of that party. 

Ron Paul will stick out like a sore thumb.  He is third party material, although his libertarianism suits the rapacious.  Still, he is

US Dollar Very Long Term Chart

Please bear in mind that the DX dollar index will become increasingly irrelevant because of its outdated structure, heavily weighted to the euro yen and the pound, to the exclusion of the emerging currencies and the precious metals.

The shorter term chart has been rallying largely on euro weakness. We might see another eurodollar short squeeze if things continue to deteriorate in the European

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Refuse to Be Used

As a reminder, the choice between inflation and deflation in a fiat currency system that is not otherwise externally constrained is a policy decision.

In a democratic republic that is also a net debtor with a trade balance problem, the most likely outcome from a financial credit contraction is stagflation.

However, this does not mean that deflation is not possible. I want to be completely

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

The hardy individualists in the financial sector are letting Benny know that they need another government QE handout, and expect it to be delivered at their September meeting.

Despite the big decline in the overnight, it fell to a predictable support level, and drifted up much of the day on light volume.

The bulls are still not out of the woods. Obama gives his jobs speech on Thursday. He

SP Futures This Morning

I am certainly not going to get in front of this.

But we are still in familiar territory.

Here are some markers to be able to see if things fall apart, or not.

A controlled decline would be harder to buy than a capitulation selloff, which would probably find its bottom near the prior lows as indicated on the second chart, IF a bottom was being made.

I own no stocks now, only bullion.

The

About Those Falling Interest Rates and the Fallacy of Monetary Deflation at the Zero Bound

Liquidity Trap, Straight Up, with a Twist

I think we are all familiar with the recently popular viewpoint that as the financial economy crashed, what people called 'money destruction' would follow. Well actually the destruction of credit which some considered the same as money, as money itself. There were many detailed and complex thought experiments to explain why this must happen, involving

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Smacked By the Invisible Hand

"People who hold strong opinions on complex social issues are likely to examine relevant empirical evidence in a biased manner. They are apt to accept confirming evidence at face value while subjecting disconfirming evidence to critical evaluation, and as a result to draw undue support for their initial positions from mixed or random empirical findings.

Thus, the result of exposing contending

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

"Mr. Obama wishes to be president of a country that does not exist. In his fantasy US, politicians bury differences in bipartisan harmony. In fact, he faces an opposition that would prefer their country to fail than their president to succeed."

Martin Wolf, Financial Times
The Non-Farm Payrolls number came in at exactly zero. I had to check the numbers to make sure of that headline, and sure

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

"The terrible, cold, cruel part is Wall Street. Rivers of gold flow there from all over the earth, and death comes with it. There, as nowhere else, you feel a total absence of the spirit: herds of men who cannot count past three, herds more who cannot get past six, scorn for pure science and demoniacal respect for the present.

And the terrible thing is that the crowd that fills the Street

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Markets sputtered on light volumes and largely technical trade ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

Consensus of economists is +110,000 jobs for non-farm private payrolls, and +70,000 overall including government.

I am of an open mind to see the equity market react perversely to a low number tomorrow. It would be one of this reactions that says, 'since the number is bad, then the Fed

Greenberger: Secret Exemptions Allow Futures Price Manipulation - RealNews

Michael Greenberger is one of my lights into these types of issues. He is a nice remedy to the mistaken theories of many, including alas Paul Krugman, who does not believe that speculators can influence prices, even in the short term. But there are far, far worse, who know better but sell themselves for pay.

Greenberger highlights the speculative pools activity of Goldman Sachs and Morgan